April 26, 2011

An Update on NG - Initiate Short at your Convenience

Just a short comment here.  I want to let everyone know that NG made a downward breakout today, and that with the bearish fundamentals and point and figure sell signal, it should be safe to initiate a short tomorrow.  I would prefer to place the order around 12.80, in case there is a throwback.  I entered today at 12.88.

My stop level is at 13.25 on close, or an emergency stop at 13.37.

~Christopher Diodato

2 comments:

  1. What kind of a timeline are we looking at for this to play out?

    Also, what percent of your portfolio are you weighting to each of these trades? Do you base that percent on the percent-of-success of each trade?

    ReplyDelete
  2. The only problem with a fulcrum pattern is that it has no way of giving time objectives. The symmetrical triangle, however, gives us some help.

    According to the chart, it says that we'll hit the objective by mid-June.

    Now we may end up with another loss here, but still the evidence is strongly in our favor. If you have access to a daily relative strength index for the chart, a head and shoulders top broke out in the index, giving us a clue of a major reversal.

    Now with the last part...you've got a really good idea to allocate leverage according to percent chance of success. I'll get to researching that some day soon.

    I actually only base position size on a fixed amount of risk. It's simplistic, and probably flawed in some areas, but effective for my needs. I'll make a post on it tonight!

    Thanks for the comment =)

    Chris Diodato

    ReplyDelete