April 6, 2011

BUY DGP- Ascending Triangle Breakout

First trade!  Buy a gold ETF tomorrow.  I chose this one because I liked the leverage, so less capital gives you the same profit as if you invested more money.

We have several things that will work in our favor with this trade

  • Breakout above very stubborn resistance
  • Breakout on high volume from ascending triangle
  • Two stochastic buy signals
  • Favorable risk/reward ratio
  • High probability of success with this type of breakout (~75%)


Click on the picture to enlarge.

Strategy:  Buy stop @ 44.55 and a Buy limit order @ 44.05.  Filling one order must cancel the other, as we do not want to overleverage ourselves.

The probability of a bullish ascending triangle breakout hitting its price target, according to the Thomas Bulkowski studies, is 75%, which means that there is a 25% chance of failure.

Our stop is a close below 43.75, and our target price is 47.50, resulting in a probability adjusted risk-reward ratio of 11.

This is a very favorable trade, and I had a video, but it is still opening.  Hope you can jump in!

~Christopher Diodato

EDIT:  1:26 PM  
Renowned technical analyst, Sam Collins, has just recommended a strong buy for all gold ETFs.  Beat you too it! =)

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