FIG Head and Shoulders - Reversal Pending

I'm posting this perhaps a week before we may be able to actually make a trade, so keep FIG on your watch list.

FIG is an investment group that took a major nosedive since its initial IPO. The downtrend has been in full force for years, and this is a little "blip" in the downtrend. Perhaps they leveraged themselves too much right before the stock market tanked. Anyway, the six month uptrend is showing signs of reversing with a very reliable pattern called the "head and shoulders."

Click on the image to enlarge.

I posted the strategy in my video, but here are the cliffs.

Enter short @ 5.12 stop
Exit with a loss @ 5.51 on close (Also, reverse the position)
Target @ 3.50
Probability of success: 55%
Probability of failure: 45%
Probability adjusted risk/reward ratio: 5.08 (Over 5, take the trade)
Earnings is announced on May 2, so be prepared to take action if there is a major swing.

Here's the video, which includes the strategy and all of my analysis.

FIG Head and Shoulders

Happy trading!
~Christopher Diodato